Section 1 – Introduction
Horizon scanning refers to the timely and systemic detection of changes and developments that can affect an entity. In this regard, horizon scanning can encompass doing a single or periodic scan relying on the insights of top leaders in an entity. Horizon scanning can also be continuous, more common in the public sector, and generally involves a participatory approach. Depending on the type of horizon scanning, an entity could enlist a small team of full-time scanners or rely on part-time scanners. Horizon scanning could focus on particular priorities or involve scanning the entire external environment. Overall, the horizon scanning system should be guided by the organization’s context and the needs of the decision-makers (Bengston, 2013, 4). For the assignment, horizon scanning will aid in acquainting the student with the retail sector developments. In this case, the sector’s relevance to the different facets of society, the challenges marring the sector, and their implications to managers in the retail sector. Also, the horizon scan will assist in understanding the importance of the state of the retail sector on career development and prospects of professionals.
The retail sector involves the sale of goods and services to consumers. In addition, retail establishments are in vast forms, including bookstores, groceries, and restaurants. Retail products are sold either online or in physical stores. Globally, the in-store retail approach is the most popular, but online retail, popularly known as e-commerce, is gaining momentum, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, most retailers are adopting an Omnichannel distribution market. For 2021, global retail sales amounted to $ 26 trillion, projected to increase to $ 30 trillion and $31.7 trillion in 2024 and 2025, respectively (Sabanoglu, 2022). The positive projects suggest the likely growth of the sector over the coming decade. Globally, the leading retailers are Amazon and Walmart.
Regarding revenue, the top three retailers globally were from the United States: Walmart, Amazon, and Costco Wholesale Corporation, whose revenues were $ 572.75, 239.15 and 195.93 billion for 2021, respectively (Sabanoglu, 2023). The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic undermined the employment levels in the retail sector across the globe. The industry is, however, recuperating gradually. In this regard, by February last year retail sector in the United States had 15.7 million employees working an average of 30.4 hours weekly (Simionato, 2022).
Section 2 – Technology Enablers and Innovations
Embedment of shelves with sensors is a vital innovation in improving retailing. The invention enables the managers of retailers to get real-time data on the stocks on the shelves. In this case, the information sent through the sensors aids the managers in replenishing supplies that have been bought. Consumers can, therefore, find the stores they require on the shelves when shopping. The innovation is instrumental, particularly after the pandemic that disrupted the supply chain creating shortages that undermined retailing (American Express, 2020).
Also, recommendation engines are improving the consumer experience in retailing. In this case, retailers can access vast information about potential consumers through their technological gadgets. The retailers analyze the data that aids in comprehending the likely consumer behavior. Based on past behaviors, retailers can make appealing recommendations to potential consumers on what they should purchase. The tendency to recommend a product aligned with potential consumers’ past consumption patterns increases the consumers’ likelihood of buying a product. Recommendation engines are essential since consumers strive for a personalized shopping experience (American Express, 2020).
Also, virtual reality and robot assistance are revolutionizing the retail space. In this case, potential consumers can interact with products they want to purchase uniquely and interestingly through virtual reality. Virtual reality allows clients to try on clothes virtually if the product is out of stock. The robots sum up as assistants that respond to consumers’ concerns. Therefore, a retailer grappling with staffing challenges can alleviate the resulting inconveniences through robotics. In addition, during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, innovation is pivotal in enhancing a safe retailing experience (American Express, 2020).
Big data is also an innovation vital in the retail sector. In this case, due to big data, an entity collects voluminous information about the client, sorts out the information, and proceeds to analyze it. The analysis reveals patterns and trends that management deems actionable. Big data is particularly useful in streamlining the supply chain. In this context, streamlining the supply chain ensures just-in-time delivery. The tendency cuts costs such as those of storage and averts undesirable consequences of goods going bad. A robust supply chain has become a priority after the pandemic, which thwarted the movement of goods (American Express, 2020).
Augmented or virtual reality is another technology enabler transforming the retail industry. This is part of a new and vibrant shopping experience in e-commerce which facilitates users to play, socialize and shop as if they are in the real world. This technology allows customers to see themselves in new clothes or behind the wheel of a new car. It is estimated that more than 1 million customers have shopped with augmented or virtual reality technology (Roggeven & Suthuraman, 2020). The pre-purchase phase is the most promoted process by this technology. The pre-purchase process involves all customer interactions with the products before buying. With better prep-purchase technologies, customers can identify their needs better and search for appropriate product options, whether online or in-store. Augmented reality is a game changer in the retail sector, and it brings a new dimension to the consumers to experience new technologies and shopping experiences. According to a Deloitte survey, more than three-quarters of retailers expressed interest in adapting virtual reality in their businesses and everyday lives (Cole, 2022)
Section 3 – Analyse the industry through three lenses discussed in class
Future of Consumption
The near-term future of consumption seems bleak due to the high inflation rates persisting across the globe and the effect of the Russia-Ukraine War (Davey, 2022). Inflation implies that commodity prices keep increasing, undermining consumers’ purchasing power. Inflation for groceries in the United Kingdom was at 17.5% yearly, whereby the prices of basic commodities, milk, and eggs, are growing the fastest (Kollewe, 2023). Typically, with inflation, wages grow slowly compared to the cost of commodities; hence consumers have to cut their spending. In addition, the purchasing power financed savings becomes eroded. Retailers are stocking their stores to reflect the prevailing consumption patterns during the high inflation. In this case, the Ocado retail manager alludes that the consumers are opting for frozen foods compared than fresh to avoid wastage; as a result, the entity ensures ample availability of the preferred type and even ratios quantity of products utilized in salads to ensure that some consumers do not lack (Kollewe, 2023). The high inflation challenge will, however, improve over time as stakeholders in government strive to revert the state. In this case, central banks across the globe are enacting monetary policies by gradually increasing interest rates to reduce inflation (Cox, 2023).
The world has become incredibly convenient with the surge of innovation in e-commerce, that is, the world is everywhere, anytime, and however the consumer wants it. (Colgate-Palmolive, 2022). Consumer e-commerce nowadays is mostly motivated by price and convenience, with many products available for immediate delivery. Many customers are beginning to expect more from shops, such as the opportunity to get fantastic bargains on products not found in the major chain retail outlets. These core desires will continue to exist in the future, and customer expectations of e-commerce and the shopping experience will have evolved dramatically. The desire for instant access and quick turnaround will be the norm, driven by millennials and Generation Z consumers who are always connected and inhabit the online environment where events happen in real-time without waiting and where social media allows them to dictate the terms. As a result, buyers will demand the marketed goods fulfill all promises in all ways, with no disconnect between the ‘fit and feel’ of what is online and what is delivered. This consumption pattern will pressure retailers, and those who fail to match these expectations will be included. As a result, retailers will be pushed to engage in long-term customer service and support.
Future of Enterprise
The retail sector’s future looks bright for entities willing to invest more in technology and sustainability matters. In this regard, technological innovations are holistically shaping retail sector operations. Firms in the retail industry have to allocate significant funds to support technology innovations. In this respect, Target has partnered with leading firms in technology to help innovations by start-ups that are likely to improve or revolutionize the retail space. Equally, Sephora continues investing in technology to reduce the gap between physical and online shopping (Jawharkar, 2017). Most leaders in the retail sector have physical and online shopping, such as Sephora and Walmart Inc. It has been seen that these industries are constantly investing in research and development to bridge the gap between online and in-store shopping, and it impacts the organizational structure. The e-commerce organizational structure will be determined by the research and development level and the business strategy. For example, a firm can expand by establishing a commercial office, where operations are centralized, or if the firm acquires operations abroad and the functions become decentralized. Portfolio and level of diversification and technologies will determine the complexity of the organizational structure. Finally, the development of executives is one of the e-retail business concerns; developing leaders aligned with e-commerce technologies is a driving force determining the future of the growing retail market (Deitel, 2011).
Given the numerous disasters triggered by climate change, sustainability has become a concern across the globe. Sustainability further entails ensuring that raw materials for retail are produced while observing human dignity. In this regard, consumers are keen to establish whether their products have been sourced sustainably. Notably, any reports questioning the sustainability of a product attracts negative publicity for the entity, and a boycott of the product also ensues. The actions of the consumers are a means to implore organizations to implement positive change in their supply chain. At Tesco, the organization has set aside resources, for instance, finances, personnel, and time to support sustainability initiatives across the supply chain. Besides, to enhance accountability, Tesco reports on environmental, social, and governance issues annually (Tesco Plc, 2021).
Future of work
The traditional retail job will be lost due to the sector’s digital evolution. In this regard, there will be a decline in the number of workers needed to work in traditional retail stores, such as cashiers. New jobs will also emerge in the sector, whereby the jobs will primarily be technological. The technology jobs in retail will increase as more retailers strive to leverage e-commerce. In addition, demand for customer service and problem-solving professionals will continue rising as retailers seek to offer unparalleled consumer experience. Equally, competition for top-tier employees will continue to be fierce. The key players mainly focus on social hiring and automation, allowing them to bring speed, accuracy, and branding to the hiring process. The adoption of artificial intelligence in hiring demands that industries offer resources for skilling, upskilling, and reskilling to stay relevant (Ovum, 2021). The employees today are also millennials and Generation Z, who are highly ambitious, and on the lookout for a challenge; thus, some leading retailers have tapped into this talent by encouraging lateral movement of talent and promoting talent internally. This approach not only lowers the hiring cost but also prevents competition for skill and rapidly adapting to the evolving environments (Gepard, 2023).
The competition will be evident through retailers offering competitive wages for back offices and storefront workers and flexible working environments offering better work-life environments (Kapoor, 2019). Attracting top talent will be vital in enhancing consumer satisfaction in a space where many rivals and consumers are consistently looking for better retailing experiences. Also, the human resource in a retail firm has to be flexible to scale up or size down the workforce depending on organizational needs. Besides, human resources must devise creative ways to deal with emerging trends in labor markets, such as work-life balance and union demands (Jawharkar, 2017; Deloitte, 2023). At Tesco, employees have the privilege of having flexible working programs, subsequently aiding them to realize a work-life balance. The organization has also devised a program that allows employees to relay their concerns to the organization safely. The organization further strives to develop its employees through programs to fund some of their education (Tesco Plc,2022).
Section 4 – Your views
Technology is becoming embedded in the retail sector. As a result, as a professional, it is prudent to invest in acquiring some basic technology education and skills. Developing technology skills will ensure that I can work more effectively in the sector incorporating technology in its operation. Besides, the technology knowledge will reduce the likelihood of becoming redundant in the retail industry. Given the sector’s positive effect on society, I want to work in the retail sector. Notably, through the industry, people can purchase products they deem necessary for leading a quality life. In the retail sector, I would champion more sustainable innovations in the supply chain. Supporting sustainability in the supply chain would aid in alleviating climate change plights and cut on costs. Cutting costs would ensure that consumers can afford basic products, which would cost less. Besides, the funds saved through cutting costs could be spent on improving employees’ welfare. Contributing to improving the retail sector would yield immense satisfaction in my professional life.
American Express (2020). Technological Factors Affecting the Retail Industry. Available at: https://www.americanexpress.com/en-ca/business/trends-and-insights/articles/technological-factors-affecting-the-retail-industry
Bengston, D.N., 2013. Horizon scanning for environmental foresight: a review of issues and approaches. United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station.
Cox. J. (2023). Retail sales jumped 3% in January, smashing expectations despite the inflation increase. CNBC, February 15. Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/retail-sales-january-2023-.html
Davey. J. (2022). UK grocery inflation hits 4.3%, Ukraine conflict adds to pressure -Kantar. Reuters, I March. Available at: UK grocery inflation hit 4.3%, Ukraine conflict adds to stress -Kantar | Reuters
Deloitte (2023). The future of work for retail? Available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/consulting/articles/future-of-work-for-retail.html
Jawharkar. H. (2017). Five Jobs That Will Transform the Future of Retail. Forbes. July 27. Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbescommunicationscouncil/2017/07/27/five-jobs-that-will-transform-the-future-of-retail/?sh=2e4130f73057
Kollewe. J. (2023). UK supermarket inflation hits record high, making shoppers hunt for bargains. The Guardian, March 28. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/28/uk-supermarket-inflation-record-high-bargains-prices
Roggeveen, A. L., & Sethuraman, R. (2020). Customer-interfacing retail technologies in 2020 & beyond An integrative framework and research directions. Journal of Retailing, 96(3), 299-309.
Sabanoglu. T. (2022). Total retail sales worldwide from 2020 to 2025. Statista, April 13. Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/443522/global-retail-sales/
Sabanoglu. T. (2023). Leading retailers worldwide in 2021 by retail revenue. Statista, March 22. Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/266595/leading-retailers-worldwide-based-on-revenue/
Simionato. C. (2022). Retail employment worldwide – Statistics & facts. Statista, August 25. Available at: https://www.statista.com/topics/9219/retail-employment-worldwide/#topicOverview
Tesco Plc (2021). Annual Report and Financial Statements 2021.Available at: Corporate Governance – Tesco PLC
Tesco Plc (2022). Tesco makes a significant investment in colleague pay, benefits, and skills. Available at: Tesco makes a significant investment in colleague pay, benefits, and skills – Tesco PLC
Deitel, H. M. (2011). E-Business & e-Commerce for Managers. Pearson Education India.
Cole, A. (2022, January 28). 4 new technologies making waves in the e-Commerce sector. Techopedia. https://www.techopedia.com/4-new-technologies-making-waves-in-the-e-commerce-sector/2/34623#3_AugmentedVirtual_Reality
Colgate-Palmolive – Global household & consumer products. (2022). Colgate-Palmolive – Global Household & Consumer Products. https://www.colgatepalmolive.com/en-us
Gepard. (2023, February 9). Sustainable ecommerce: Can online trade become greener? Gepard PIM. https://gepard.io/ecommerce-strategy/sustainable-ecommerce
Kapoor, P. (2019). People matter. HR News Articles | HR Magazine | HR Blogs | HR Conferences — People Matters. https://www.peoplematters.in/article/talent-acquisition/trends-in-talent-acquisition-e-commerce-industry-21938
Ovum. (2021). The Future of E-commerce: The Road to 2026. The Commerce Media Platform for the Open Internet | Criteo. https://www.criteo.com/es/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/09/ovum-the-future-of-e-commerce-the-road-to-2026.pdf
Correspondence, Coherence, And Pragmatic Theories Of Truth Essay Example
It is common to hear the statement, “Everyone has their own truth.” Individuals are free to select a religion, customs, and culture and create truths that suit their choices. Recognizing the substance of truth and its significance for individuals has been a long-standing challenge. Is it correct to believe that truth must function, be helpful to people, and aid in achieving outcomes that make people happy? Is it conceivable for the truth to be some agreement between a belief and a fact of actual life? Is it also feasible for the truth to cohere with other truths? This essay aims to clearly understand each theory of truth, its advantages and disadvantages, and how it approaches the essence of truth and its place in human knowledge. Each theory’s ramifications in many areas, such as science, ethics, or daily life, will also be examined along with pertinent examples. Ultimately, this essay will express a personal viewpoint on which theory or set of theories offers the most convincing explanation of truth and will support this viewpoint.
Comprehensive explanations of the coherence, correspondence, and pragmatic theories of truth.
According to the coherence theory of truth, a claim is valid if it forms a part of a coherent and consistent body of beliefs. It was established by Brand Blanshard in the 20th century (Gazda, 2021). According to this idea, a statement’s reality depends on how it interacts with other beliefs in a system or network. A claim is, therefore, valid if it accords with other claims and makes sense in the context of a wider body of knowledge. This viewpoint places more importance on a group of ideas’ overall coherence or consistency than on how closely those beliefs correspond to reality. The coherence theory of truth has been criticized for allowing for closed systems of beliefs, where a group of people can uphold their ideas regardless of reality. Furthermore, it is still being determined how one may judge which collection of contradictory coherent ideas is true because there may be numerous sets of them.
According to the correspondence theory of truth, a proposition’s relationship to how the world works determines whether or not it is true (Gazda, 2021). Aristotle’s views were the foundation for the correspondence theory of truth, later refined by Aquinas, Descartes, Spinoza, Locke, and Kant. The idea, which asserts that truth is founded on the agreement or correspondence between a belief and reality, was also developed by Bertrand Russell and Alfred Tarski. Brand Blanshard established it in the 20th century. If a statement matches the facts or reality it refers to, it is true. In this perspective, the emphasis is on how accurately a statement captures reality. This viewpoint is frequently linked to the concept of impartial truth. One criticism of the correspondence theory is that it presumes a simple and direct relationship between a statement and reality, even though some contend that our understanding of reality is filtered by the language we use and the concepts we adopt.
According to the pragmatic view of truth, a belief or proposition’s truth is determined by the practical repercussions of adopting or rejecting it (Gazda, 2021). William James developed the pragmatic theory of truth in the mid-19th century. If a belief produces fruitful practical results, it is true. According to this perspective, usefulness, not correspondence or coherence, determines what is true. The pragmatic theory has been criticized for tending to relativism, according to which what is valid for one person may not be accurate for another, depending on their practical considerations. Nevertheless, there might be instances where a belief that produces successful practical results is untrue.
Strengths and Weaknesses
One advantage of correspondence theory is how well it fits with common sense. The correspondence theory supports the common belief that truth is consistent with reality. It also allows for objective truth, which is a benefit. Under this view, truth exists irrespective of human opinions, enabling us to have impartial knowledge of the outside world. As an illustration, whether someone believes it or not, “The sun rises in the east” is true. The correspondence theory, however, also has flaws. One is that it could be challenging to determine whether or not a belief conforms to reality (Moulard et al., 2021). It might not always be able to directly examine or test whether a belief and reality correspond, for example, in theoretical physics. Furthermore, the correspondence theory makes the questionable assumption that there is a known objective world. For instance, advocates of subjective idealism contend that because reality depends on human perception and cannot be known objectively, it cannot be known objectively.
Moreover, the pragmatic theory provides advantages. One is that it recognizes how beliefs have real-world implications. As a result, various ideas may hold equally well in various situations or with various goals. For instance, a viewpoint that helps forecast the weather may need to be more helpful for comprehending human behavior. The pragmatic theory also acknowledges the possibility of various legitimate viewpoints on reality and the influence of human experience on beliefs. One is that figuring out what is practical or valuable might be challenging. Various people may have different definitions of what is beneficial, and the usefulness of a belief may be influenced by subjective elements like one’s own beliefs or objectives. The pragmatic philosophy can also result in relativism, which accepts several beliefs as equally acceptable without using objective standards to determine which is more accurate (Shahryari, 2023). A belief that supports a detrimental consequence, for instance, may nevertheless be judged true if it was helpful to the person who held it if utility is the only standard for judging truth
The advantage of coherence theory over theories that only consider individual beliefs is its ability to explain how beliefs interact within a system. It offers a comprehensive view of reality. A belief’s validity is determined by how well it fits into the more extensive system of ideas rather than how closely it jives with reality. When concepts are accepted merely because they are consistent with other beliefs in the system, circular thinking can result from using the coherence hypothesis. Groups that accept internally consistent beliefs that may not be real experience groupthink due to this. Coherence theory, which holds that a theory’s veracity depends on its consistency with other theories in the scientific system and its congruence with observable reality, is an example. The theory of relativity, which defies common sense and seems illogical, is believed to be accurate since it predicts and meshes with other scientific theories.
The three truth theories of science, ethics, and daily life are affected by correspondence, coherence, and pragmatism. The correspondence and pragmatic theories emphasize scientific theories’ practicality and application to real-world problems (Reed, 2019). Scientific hypotheses without empirical support are wrong. The coherence theory might be helpful in scientific environments where ideas must cohere and explain a wide range of phenomena. The correspondence hypothesis is limited in ethics because ethical views and values may only sometimes match empirical data. In ethical circumstances where ethical views and values must cohere and build a consistent ethical framework, the coherence theory might be helpful. The pragmatic theory stresses ethical behaviors’ practical effects, making them relevant to ethics. Truth is affected by all three theories in daily life. When verifying assertions or statements, the correspondence theory may be helpful. When we want our views and values to match and form a coherent worldview, the coherence theory can help. The pragmatic theory can help us assess the daily effects of our actions and decisions.
Each explanation provides a compelling account of reality, but the coherence theory is the most convincing. The coherence theory has been criticized for potentially encouraging subjectivism and relativism due to the lack of an objective reality with which beliefs must be coherent. According to coherence theorists, truth necessitates coherence, but they argue it is not enough. Beliefs, like facts, should be backed up by evidence and provide context for our experiences. Many people feel that the coherence theory emphasizes the internal consistency of concepts rather than their adherence to reality. However, coherence theorists argue that it is impossible to understand a person’s views without also considering their relationships to other people’s ideas and the impact of their social and cultural milieus. Correspondence with reality is more likely when our beliefs are internally consistent and consistent with our broader body of knowledge. Hence, coherence theory offers a compelling perspective for understanding how ideas align with one another and how they are related to the outside world.
In conclusion, there are various viewpoints on the nature of truth and how to assess it offered by the coherence, correspondence, and pragmatic truth theories. Each theory can be used in various contexts, including science, ethics, and daily life, and each has advantages and disadvantages. While the correspondence theory emphasizes how beliefs and reality agree, the coherence theory emphasizes the importance of a coherent and connected network of beliefs. The pragmatic hypothesis, on the other hand, places more focus on how adopting a belief would affect daily life. Ultimately, a person’s preferences and the particular application situation determine their chosen theory. However, it is essential to be aware of any theory’s limitations and inherent biases and to search for the truth with an open mind and a readiness to challenge one’s own ideas. By critically analyzing our beliefs and keeping open to new ideas, we can get closer to understanding the intricacies of reality as we continue the search for truth.
Gazda, V. (2021). Theories of truth in legal fact-finding. Theory of Legal Evidence-Evidence in Legal Theory, 149-165.
Moulard, J. G., Raggio, R. D., & Folse, J. A. G. (2021). Disentangling the meanings of brand authenticity: The entity-referent correspondence framework of authenticity. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 49, 96-118.
Reed, P. G. (2019). Intermodernism: A philosophical perspective for development of scientific nursing theory. Advances in Nursing Science, 42(1), 17-27.
Shahryari, S. (2023). Absolutism, Relativism, and Pragmatic Fallibilism: A Reply to Stump. Journal for General Philosophy of Science, 1-8.
The Ampco Company Sample College Essay
1.0 Executive summary
In a fast-changing world, Systems Thinking and Modeling is an excellent tools for understanding and managing complexity (Bala et al., 2017). It is an interdisciplinary problem-solving strategy incorporating systems theory, modelling, and simulation tools. It provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and managing complex systems, allowing us to investigate the interplay of various system constituents and their associated behaviour throughout time. Systems Thinking and Modeling allow us to identify and evaluate the underlying structures and processes that drive a system’s behaviour and comprehend the impact of changes on the system as a whole. It provides a powerful and valuable tool for decision-makers to investigate the possible outcomes of various interventions, considering the interconnectedness of a system’s components and the long-term implications of their interactions(Sauer et al., 2017). It is a strong tool for understanding and managing complexity, and it may be utilized to build successful strategies and answers to the issues that a fast-changing environment presents. The Ampco Company has been experiencing lower production levels, which have yet to satisfy the consumer’s level of demand. System dynamics, therefore, are used to analyze and solve the problem.
The environment in which automotive components are manufactured is constantly shifting, and businesses such as Ampco need to be able to keep up with the expectations of their customers in order to maintain their position as market leaders. In recent times, Ampco has seen significant growth in the number of orders placed by customers; nevertheless, the company has been unable to modify its production procedures to keep up with the demand. As a direct consequence of this, the company has been dealing with considerable delays in the execution of orders, which has resulted in dissatisfied customers. In this essay, we will investigate how system dynamics can be utilized to solve the growing client demand that Ampco is now facing. System dynamics is an interdisciplinary field that seeks to investigate and explain the behaviour of complex systems over time by combining systems theory, modelling, and simulation approaches (Bala et al., 2017). It gives decision-makers access to a strong tool that allows them to investigate the anticipated outcomes of various interventions and better comprehend and control the numerous risks connected with managing a complex system.
After that, it will investigate the many aspects of system dynamics, such as the variables, feedback loops, and model characteristics. Last but not least, it will talk about the potential benefits of employing system dynamics to solve Ampco’s dilemma and the potential difficulties that could arise from doing so. The environment in which automotive components are manufactured is constantly shifting, and businesses such as Ampco need to be able to keep up with the expectations of their customers in order to maintain their position as market leaders. In recent times, Ampco has seen significant growth in the number of orders placed by customers; nevertheless, the company has been unable to modify its production procedures to keep up with the demand. As a direct consequence of this, the company has been dealing with considerable delays in the execution of orders, which has resulted in dissatisfied customers.
3.0 Problem Analysis and possible solutions
Ampco has seen a significant drop in sales due to several production issues, including insufficient production capacity, a lack of flexibility in production processes, and inefficient resource allocation (Machowiski et al., 2020). The corporation must meet customer demand, resulting in fewer sales and increased customer unhappiness. This issue is made even more difficult because the company needs to promptly make the necessary adjustments to its manufacturing procedures to satisfy the increased demand for its products. Because of this, there have been significant delays in the delivery of orders, which has further undermined the loyalty of customers and led to a decline in sales. In addition to this, the company has seen a decline in efficiency due to its failure to optimize the manufacturing processes and the usage of the available resources. Because of this, costs and profits have gone up (Shire et al., 2018).
In the case of Ampco, system dynamics can be utilized to determine the fundamental structures and processes that are the driving forces behind the company’s manufacturing procedures. It is possible to analyze the dynamics of the system in order to find solutions that will assist the company in better satisfying the needs of its customers. This can be accomplished by considering the system’s many variables, feedback loops, and other characteristics. System dynamics is a method that may be utilized to investigate the potential outcomes of various interventions, such as alterations to the production procedure or the components utilized, and to evaluate the long-term implications that these modifications will have on the system as a whole. The application of system dynamics can also assist in identifying potential areas of risk, such as delays in order fulfilment due to disturbances in supply chain operations. Ampco can design strategies and solutions that can assist it in meeting customers’ demands in a manner that is both more efficient and effective if it first understands the system’s dynamics (Zare et al., 2019).
3.1 Key variables
Applying system dynamics to Ampco’s dilemma requires understanding the numerous variables that determine the system’s behaviour. These variables include customer demand for parts, the company’s production capacity, the resources and labour employed in the manufacturing process, the process’s efficiency, and the supply chain dynamics. Consumer demand is a critical system variable because it dictates how much production capacity is needed to meet demand. The company’s production capacity is also essential since it dictates how quickly parts can be manufactured and how efficiently the process can be run. Materials and labour utilized in the manufacturing process are other essential elements since they influence the cost of production and the quality of the products produced. Another critical aspect is the effectiveness of the manufacturing process, which impacts how rapidly parts can be produced and how cost-effective the process is. Finally, supply chain dynamics are a significant aspect of the system since disturbances in the supply chain can cause order fulfilment delays.
The company can therefore use system dynamics and modelling to try and solve the problem. One solution to the issue of insufficient production capacity is to improve the capacity of the production facilities already in operation. This might be accomplished by the purchase of brand-new machinery, the establishment of extra production lines, or the hiring of additional workers. This will assist the organization in meeting the demand of its customers and reducing delays in the execution of orders. Secondly, the company can use system dynamics to improve the production process by implementing various technological equipment that can assist in the production process. Improving production processes can boost the company’s productivity while also cutting expenses. This can be accomplished by automating formerly manual tasks, reducing the waste produced, and optimizing the production process (Shire et al., 2018). Because of this, the company can boost its manufacturing capacity and decrease the time it takes to complete orders.
Moreover, the company can enhance Resource Allocation by increasing its efficiency and cutting costs which are both possible outcomes of improving how resources are allocated within the business. This can be accomplished by implementing more effective scheduling methods, doing away with redundant jobs, and using the available resources better. Consequently, the company can incorporate flexibility into the production process, thus enabling it to adapt more rapidly to shifts in customer demand. This can be accomplished by implementing modular production systems, which provide the business with the capability of rapidly reconfiguring production lines to fulfil shifting customer demands. Integrating production-level feedback loops into the production process enables the business to respond more quickly to customer demand shifts. One way to accomplish this goal is to put in place sensors and automated systems that track client demand and change production levels in response to that data—adopting a Systems Thinking Attitude which assists the business in understanding the interdependencies that exist between the many components of a system as well as the consequences that their interactions have over the long run (Sauer et al., 2017). This can be accomplished by implementing simulation techniques such as System Dynamics, which allow the company to investigate the likely outcomes of various interventions and devise solutions to the problems caused by the interdependencies between the various components of a system.
4.0 Loop Diagram
In order to solve the issue with Ampco by employing system dynamics, one must first grasp the components that will go into drawing the loop diagram. These elements include the arrows, which represent the relationships between the components, the feedback loops, which represent the relationships between various elements of the system and their associated behaviour over time; and the nodes, which represent the various components of the system. Each of these elements can be thought of as a representation of a different part of the system. The nodes in the loop diagram are symbolic representations of the many components of the system, such as consumer demand, the firm’s production capacity, the materials and labour employed in the manufacturing process, the efficiency of the process, and the dynamics of the supply chain. The arrows represent the relationships between the components, such as the relationship between customer demand and production capacity or the relationship between the efficiency of the process and the cost of production. Similarly, the arrows may also represent the relationship between the cost of production and the efficiency of the process.
Last but not least, the feedback loops are a representation of the interactions that exist between the various components of the system and the behaviour that is associated with them over time. For instance, a rise in customer demand might cause the firm to raise its production capacity, which in turn can cause an increase in the level of effectiveness achieved by the process. It is feasible to discover solutions that can assist the organization in meeting the demand of customers more successfully if one has a good grasp of the pieces that make up the loop diagram. In order to solve the issue with Ampco by employing system dynamics, one must first grasp the components that will go into drawing the loop diagram. These elements include the arrows, which represent the relationships between the components, the feedback loops, which represent the relationships between various elements of the system and their associated behaviour over time; and the nodes, which represent the various components of the system. Each of these elements can be thought of as a representation of a different component of the system.
The loop diagram clearly shows the relationship between the various variables affecting the Ampco Company. Furthermore, it shows the relationship between the variables and the problem. For example, from the diagram, an arrow shows the relationship between consumer demand and the firm’s production capacity. The relationship between the firm’s production capacity and the labour employed is also shown.
4.1 Limitations of the causal loop diagram
The loop diagram cannot capture all the factors affecting the company leading to failure to meet consumer demands. It cannot also include the complexity of the interactions between the factors or the variables that may lead to incomplete or inaccurate conclusions.
System dynamics are applied in several areas and problems related to systems. They are used to direct the process and help in determining the solutions. The Ampco Company, a leading automotive manufacturer, has faced various problems towards consumer demand satisfaction. The problems are brought about by various factors such as the low production capacity of the firm, low flow of raw materials, poor labour, poor efficiency of the production process and the dynamic of the supply chain. The company, therefore, can apply the dynamic system model, for instance, the simple loop diagram, to identify the relationship between the problem and the factors leading to the problem. Once found, these factors/ variables may be utilized to investigate the possible repercussions of system modifications and to propose methods to improve system performance.
System dynamics, for example, may be used to assess the influence of changes in production capacity on system performance. This might assist the organization in identifying viable techniques for increasing production capacity while maintaining efficiency and customer satisfaction. Moreover, system dynamics may be utilized to examine the influence of changes in resource use on system performance. This can assist the organization in identifying viable ways to optimize resource use and lowering expenses.
SYS280 gives students a complete understanding of system practice and business systems. As we start SYS280, we face the intricacy and ask ourselves how to study and remember all this knowledge. One of our team members indicated she recognizes her weaknesses, including learning hurdles, constrained rationality, misinterpretation, and narrow conceptual models. She remembered God’s words: “humans have not been given any wisdom but a little”. Another stated she found the material engaging and learnt a lot about systems and models to address challenges. This training also gives us skills, abilities, and experience to better our comprehension and strategy-making now and in the future. Each business course has given us skills to understand business operations, and this course was no different. The Business Dynamic course gave students several skills to comprehend complex systems. After many hurdles, we began assessing Aramco’s consistency. First, how can we obtain reputable materials quickly and informatively? We spend long days with extensive information and need help to grasp it. We struggled to define the problem with the team. Second, time-consuming that makes compose our analysis that one stated she finds via her investigation, then she figures out this untrue and starts from scratch, with protracted negotiations and team discussions. Finally, one team member reported drawing a causal loop diagram to help the team was a nightmare. Another claimed she had trouble expressing her analysis and loop diagrams after acquiring the appropriate information and sources. The simple loop diagram required the team to create ideas and techniques to be placed in one diagram, each concept following the other, to build and improve the diagram information and outcomes. We had to assess Ampco Company and determine which measures and details to start our diagram information construction.
To sum up, Ampco has been experiencing difficulties in her production levels, thus leading to customer dissatisfaction. Various factors attracting low production include the poor flow of raw materials, poor human labour and the supply chain dynamic. The company can solve these problems by applying a loop diagram which helps identify the outlying factors, their consequences and the possible solutions.
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