# Probability In Statistics: Desired Result’ Occurrence Essay Sample For College

### Theoretical Probability

Theoretical probability is one of the most commonly applied types of probability in statistics, especially in real-life situations. Theoretical probability refers to the possibility of a desirable outcome occurring; hence, one has to define the desirable outcome (Bennett et al. 214). The probability of an event occurring is calculated by dividing the number of desirable outcomes by the total number of outcomes in the event.

P (event) = number of desirable events/ total number of outcomes.

I have experienced theoretical probability both personally and professionally. One of the memorable experiences is when I volunteered for a charity program helping homeless people with food and shelter. I was scheduled in a team that had to serve food to the homeless and clean up the dishes after the meal. The leader in charge needed to select three teams of five members each to handle the respective tasks in the program. Team A would serve the food, while team B would serve the drinks, and team C would collect and clean the dishes. I wanted to be in team A because I wanted to interact with homeless people as we served the food. This meant that there were 5 favorable outcomes out of 15 possible outcomes; hence, the theoretical probability of falling in team A was 5/15= 1/3.

### Relative Frequency Probability

Relative frequency probability is one of the classical approaches to finding the probability of an event occurring. This approach highlights the ratio of appearance of a given event and the total number of outcomes from the experiment (Drieschner 29). Ideally, relative frequency probability highlights the number of times that an event occurs during several trials or experiments.

P (event) = number of time it occurs/ total number of trials

Relative frequency probability is seen in our daily activities. For instance in a test in my cooking class some time back, 20 students took the test. 8 made chicken soup, 10 made Italian fish stew, and 2 made pork ribs. The relative frequency probabilities of the three choices were as follows:

Chicken stew = 8/20= 0.4

Italian fish stew =10/20= 0.5

Pork ribs = 2/20= 0.1

The relative frequency probability is normally used in experimental trials when researchers are looking to establish the events with the highest frequency of occurrence. This provides data that can be used to predict the events that might occur when certain variables are altered in an experiment.

### Subjective Probability

Subjective probability refers to the use of personal opinion to establish the probability of an event occurring. As the word suggests, one applies a subjective perspective on the situation and predicts the likely outcome. This implies that subjective probability does not rely on any calculations. One can assign any percentage to subjective probability because it is based on an opinion, rather than the outcomes of collected data. For instance, my friend recently broke her laptop, and since I knew that she had an assignment to type, I was 80% sure that she would call to borrow mine. This was a subjective probability because the opinion was not based on any statistical data. It was just speculation that I developed following the consideration of the situation in which she was. Subjective probability is always prone to bias because personal opinions are not accurate statistical data.

### Works Cited

Bennett, Jeffrey O., et al. Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life. 4th ed., Pearson, 2013.

Drieschner, Michael. “Probability and Relative Frequency.” Foundations of Physics, vol. 46, no. 1, 2016, pp. 28-43.

## Public Opinion And The Media

### Introduction

Academics and professionals claim that most Americans guess their responses to survey questions; have narrow, weak opinions about the US government policies; and are easily influenced by the media based on standard narratives, politicians, corporations, or advocacy groups. Public opinion reflects public views on various government agendas and political affairs. It is extremely important for various reasons.

First, opinions influence the political actions of the public. Second, it tends to influence and account for behaviors of different political actors, political parties, and aspirants. Politicians evaluate public opinions to determine what citizens expect from them. Finally, it generally tends to influence certain policies and their outcomes. Public opinion and the media are extremely important topics, which relate to everyday affairs covered under public opinion and issues (the subject chapter) that Americans of all social classes face today. In fact, one must assess and understand the diverse characteristics of American public opinions to comprehend the actions of the US government both domestically and globally (Soroka 27-48). The Web site, Huffington Post has been chosen for this task.

### Analysis

Various American public opinions shape current affairs (Bianco and Canon 124). Americans have demonstrated that public opinions have different characteristics. Ideological polarization, although not common, is now associated with Donald Trump and his campaign team. Trump, for instance, has been able to propagate issues that have gained widespread recognition because of his radical stand on issues that most people disagree about, but they are only a small fraction of major issues that exist.

For instance, banning Muslims traveling to the US, the issue of President Obama’s birth certificate, and other controversial topics are political issues with strong dissent across the political divide. Public opinion reflects how Americans view their government and other representatives, their performances, and the assessment of specific policies. The view on specific policies generally influences voting patterns for incumbent leaders.

A lack of trust has consistently been associated with the Hillary candidature after the e-mail scandal. In the end, low-levels of trust can hamper the government’s attempts to implement new policies. It also captures policy preferences, specifically what citizens want the government to accomplish. Policy mood is known to influence the federal budget on defense, immigration, environment, and race-related affairs among others.

Finally, the US government is generally influenced by public opinion, notwithstanding the weaknesses of such opinions. While political leaders strive to shape public opinion, they are ultimately influenced by what citizens want in the end. Events, family values, group identity, and politicians and political actors have continued to act as sources of opinions for most Americans.

Media are the most influential tools for the construction of public opinion in America (Gaur 136). Hence, Huffington Post and other media sources, such as television, magazines, and the Internet, play a critical role in shaping citizens’ views (Baum and Potter 39; Hadeshian 1). Media shape thinking and views held by individuals. Consequently, they remain powerful political arsenals used to advance and attain certain objectives. Media effects have emanated to describe how media shape Americans’ opinions and actions. These effects are reflected in filtering, slant, priming, and framing of coverage to influence public thoughts (Bianco and Canon 124).

The above-mentioned media effects do not necessarily mean that every coverage is purposefully twisted and meant to influence the public in a specific way. Instead, space and time constraints could also cause unintentional media effects (Stecula, Soroka, and Wlezien 457). As such, Huffington Post may not be a good tool for learning about American politics, although it is a great source of current affairs, which reflects public opinion on issues.

### Works Cited

Baum, Matthew A., and Philip B.K. Potter. “The Relationships Between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy: Toward a Theoretical Synthesis.” Annual Review of Political Science 11 (2008): 39–65. Print.

Bianco, William T., and David T. Canon. American Politics Today. 3rd ed. New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company, 2013. Print.

Gaur, Megha. “Role of Media in Public Opinion Formation.” Masters International Journalof Management Research and Development 2.3 (2014): 136-143. Print.

Hadeshian, Seta. Public Opinion – The Role of Media. 2006. Web.

Soroka, Stuart N. “Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy.” Press/Politic 8.1 (2003): 27-48. Print.

Stecula, Dominik A., Stuart N. Soroka, and Christopher Wlezien. “It’s (Change in) the (Future) Economy, Stupid: Economic Indicators, the Media, and Public Opinion.” American Journal of Political Science 59.2 (2014): 457–474. Print.

## Entrepreneurship: Innovation, Failure, Culture

The innovative potential of an entrepreneurial business depends on its size.Chesbrough (2006, P. 2) states that ‘there exists a direct relationship between the amount and type of innovation a company achieves to the way it approaches, fosters, selects, and funds innovation efforts’.Innovation potential is essential, but it is often an assumed component in the debate on innovation. A concise knowledge of innovation potential is helpful because it forms the building blocks of innovation within the enterprise. An entrepreneurs’ innovative ability depends on the following,

1. Human capital – An enterprise with a high number of employees divided across the major functional units of the business like finance and accounting, information technology, sales, and marketing have a better chance of developing its innovativeness. The human capital brings their desires, goals, and interests and this is a key driver of innovation in the enterprise.
2. Financial –The availability of finances enables an entrepreneur invest in innovative technology and install modern equipment in the business. An entrepreneur with enough finances engages in innovative ideas.
3. Market – An entrepreneur with a big business commands a big market share. There are increased sales that bring revenue and goodwill to the entrepreneur. The company rides on its revenue streams and goodwill to test and get responses on its innovations.
4. Physical – An entrepreneur with a well-developed distribution channel can try out its innovations over a wide range of geographic location.

### Entrepreneurial failure

Entrepreneurial failure refers to the discontinuation or exit from a business which includes closure for any reason or change in ownership, bankruptcy, and persistent losses.

### Internal causes

1. Individual characteristics -The failure of the entrepreneurship depends on the individual’s education background, industry-specific knowledge, experience, and family ties.Welsch (2004, p. 136) argues that ‘human capital of the founding teams, the scale of the start-up business, and broad strategies decrease the odds of the firm discontinuance’.
2. Initial business resources – This refers to investment, start-up experience, teams involved, gender of the owner and the number of staff.Welsch (2004, p. 136) observed that ‘Women owned businesses have higher odds of discontinuance as women owners are more likely to have less experience and they start their entrepreneurship on small scale’.

### External causes

1. Competition – there exists competition in every business venture for available distribution channels, ease of reach to customers, sales, and firms’ ability against its competitors. The inability of an entrepreneur to compete favorably, obtain a market niche, and control the available resources in the market leads to failure.
2. Legislation – when government sets out changes in law, they push entrepreneurs out of business.
3. Technological changes – the technological environment is the fastest changing environment. A new technological advancement makes old technology obsolete. New technology is expensive and replacing it is difficult.

### Debates on the concept of entrepreneur

An entrepreneur is a person who takes the initiative of running a business and takes all the risks associated with the business. The debate surrounding entrepreneurs is whether they are born or made. The qualities of a successful entrepreneur are innate rather and not learned. Most of the successful entrepreneurs dropped out of school at a tender age to pursue business interests. Entrepreneurs have unique characteristics and individual traits, they are risk takers, and they do business cautiously exhibiting their entrepreneurial prowess.

Entrepreneurs align their skills towards possible business opportunities and maximize on this opportunity. Schendel (2010, p. 56) states that ‘entrepreneurs have similar character traits difficult background, minority or from a disadvantaged group, disability, risk-lover and optimist, independence and social distinction, and need for achievement and power’.The successful entrepreneurs follow a systematic logic of problem solving. They start with the end in mind and their actions justify the means of achieving their goals. The debate ends with the fact that entrepreneurs are born.

### The impact of socialization and culture on entrepreneurs

Socialization refers to the process by which people acquire and learn the culture of their society. Socialization is a continuous process that starts from birth and continues throughout an individual’s life. The factors influencing socialization are culture, parents, media, parents, legal system, and peer groups. People build their entrepreneurial businesses through various cultural processes. Entrepreneurial parents want their children to take up jobs like them. A parent who earns salary will shape their children’s minds towards employment. Socialization imparts the preference of parents to their children.

Welsch (2004, p. 81) states that ‘the child of an entrepreneurial parent picks up the parent’s posterior beliefs about technologies as his own priors and a child of a wage-working parent acquires parental aversion to risk’. A person brought up in poor background is less likely to be a successful entrepreneur since he has no role models to look up to for advice. Socialization has made it hard for women to be successful entrepreneurs as culture views women as incapable of running businesses. According to culture, women work at homes and take care of their male counterparts. This inhibits the ability of women to run businesses effectively as they do not have the experience and knowledge to run businesses.

### Corporate entrepreneurship

Schendel (2010, p. 2) states, ‘Corporate Entrepreneurship is the birth of new businesses within a running businesses, and the transformation of stagnant businesses in need of revival or transformation’.Corporate entrepreneurship issues;

1. Sustained regeneration –firms already in business exhibit and develop new entrepreneurial characteristics. Jacobson (2010, p. 28) states that ‘this includes new product development wherethe introduction of new products is ongoing and firm’s creativities have important implications for its performance’.
2. Organizational rejuvenation refers to the process where organizations seek innovativeness and enhance the performance of employees by altering their existing internal processes and structures. This includes reforming the staff into self-managed teams and circles. An organization with a self-managed team performs better since the team members take ownership of their duties and take higher risks for the team.
3. Strategic renewal –Schendel (2010, p. 5) observes, ‘The firm seeks to define its relationship with its markets or industry competitors by altering how it competes with the focus on the firms’ strategy’. The organization positions itself strategically against its competitors and develops new products distinct from the normal industry practice.

### Social networking

Clayfield (2014, p. 109) states that the ‘Social network sites are web-based services that allow individuals to construct a public profile within a bounded system and articulate a list of other users with whom they share a connection’. The nature of the social sites is that they are open to everybody and people can connect with everyone around the world. Jacobson (2010, p. 75) state that entrepreneurs drive their businesses using social sites.

### Benefits of social sites to employee

• Ability to access institution information faster.
• It helps minimize communication costs..
• Enhancement in new employee recruitment.

### Benefits of social sites to customers

• Enhanced customer service and product delivery.
• Increased customer satisfaction.
• Enhanced product development as customers participate in an online survey.

### Benefits of social sites to external partners

• Less external communication costs.
• Exploiting new external markets.
• Enhanced collaboration and product innovation opportunities.

### Reference List

Chesbrough, H 2006, Technology, Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from, Harvard Business Press,New York.

Clayfield, A 2014, Importance of Social Networking: Social Networking promotes globalization,Hardbody Publishing, Texas.

Jacobson, J 2009, 42 Rules of Social Media for Small Business, Happy About Publishers, London.

Schendel, D 2010, Introduction to the Special Issue on Corporate Entrepreneurship,Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Welsch, H. P 2004, Entrepreneurship: The Way Ahead,Psychology Press, New York.

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